Thursday, January 6, 2011

Introduction to Economics and Economic System For Beginners



Introduction to Economics and Economic Systems

Mustapha Muktar, Ph.D
Department of Economics
Bayero University, Kano-Nigeria
Introduction
Adam smith defined the subject matter of economics as the study of the causes of material welfare or as the science of wealth. Alfred Marshall in particular defined economics as the study of production, consumption, exchange and distribution of wealth by men engage in the ordinary business of life. Robinson however defined this subject matter as too restricted in scope to embrace all the facts. According to Robinson "Economics is the science which studies human behavior as a relationship between ends and scarce means which have alternative uses". A satisfactory definition must combine both these conception of economics. We may define economics as social science concerned with the proper use and allocation of scarce resources for the achievement and maintenance of growth and stability.

Basic Concepts of Economics
Basically there are 6 basic concepts of economics. These are:
1)   Ends/wants: These are goods and services, which are desired for consumption. Goods include things like foods, houses, books, etc. while services hairdressing the service of an actor etc.
2)   Means/Resources. These refer to basic instruments with which human wants can be satisfied. Resources include the productive resources such as lands labour, capital and entrepreneur, which are used in production of goods and services, in short human ends/wants are many and the resources to satisfy them are limited/ scarce
3)   Scarcity. This is the fundamental or basic economic problem. Human wants/ends are unlimited as a result of scarcity of resources. In other word scarcity refers to the inability of human beings to provide themselves with all things. However, economic goods are scarce (Limited in supply) in relating alternatives. This scarcity is the root of economics.
4}   Choice this refers to distribution of our scarce resources among different economic ends. When we have chosen or selected one thing we have to sacrifice some other things because our resources may not be sufficient to satisfy both at the same time. Thus choice arises because of scarcity of resources.
5)   Scale of preference. In order to achieve maximum satisfaction with limited resources at disposal, individual, firm, and government arrange their unlimited wants in order of relative importance and this is called a scale of preference. Thus, different economic agents make efficient use of scarce resources to meet up their numerous wants or production needs as a result of arrangement of their wants in order of preference. Therefore, the agents choose those that give the highest utility.
6)   Opportunity cost. This is the forgone alternative. The concept of opportunity cost i.e. (real cost) which is the alternative forgone when resources are directed to the satisfaction of one wants rather than the next alternative uses.

Why the Study of Economics is Important
(i)  The study of economics is important because it teaches us how to make rational use of scarce resources to satisfy our unlimited wants.
(ii)   It offers the firm and the government a rational guide in the allocation of scarce resources.
(iii) It enables the government to plan towards national integration and economic growth.
(iv)  In choice making it helps us arrange our needs in order of preference.
(v) The study of economics helps us to solve the problems of what to produce, how to produce and for whom to produce.
(vi) It helps us to offer economic solution to economic problems.
(vii) It equips one to be in a better position to estimate a country's total wealth.
(viii) It helps the individual to build up a body of economic principles and equips him with the tools of economic analysis.

Economics as a Social Science
Economic is a science and indeed a social science. The functions of science is to establish general laws covering the behaviour of the empirical objects/events with which the science in question is concerned, and thereby enable us to collect and gather our knowledge of separately known events and to make reliable prediction of event as yet unknown. These concern a theory. A theory is a set of concepts, definitions, and prepositions that presents among variable with the purpose of explaining and predicting A phenomenon. In short theory represents implication and generalization of reality and therefore do not completely describe a particular situation. Economics as a social science studies human behaviour in relation to his economic activities: It is concerned with the behavior of people in relation to production, distribution and utilization of wealth while physical or natural sciences studies living and non-living things and its environment. In a nutshell, economics as social science studies and deals with human behavior relative to their resources while physical or natural sciences deal with human beings and objects that are subjects to laboratory experiment. In the study of both economics and physical sciences. The same methodology is used in conducting a research: -
1)   Observations of phenomenon  
2. Collection and recording of observation
3. Analysis of recorded observation 
4. Classification of recorded observation.
5. Conclusion and prediction from the result of the observation        
6.   A test of the result against reality
7.   Confirmation or rejection of the results of the laws of economics, which is dynamic i.e. subject to change by individual consumer.

Nature of Economic Problems
The main problem of an economy is that of economizing resources: in this sense economics is the study of the allocation of scarce resources and alternative ends. In other words the fundamental problem of economics is scarcity. Human wants are unlimited and the means to satisfy them are scarce and limited. Thus, economics is concerned with problem of using resources to meet the unlimited wants of human beings. The solution to these problems of allocation scarce resources lies in the price system, which exists in every economic system whether it is capitalism, socialism or mixed economy. In an effort to solve these problems an economist is pre-occupied with the following different questions:

What to Produce and in What Quantity: The first central problem of an economy is to decide what goods and services are to be produced and in what quantity. This involves the allocating of scarce resources in relation to the composition of total output in the economy. Since the resources are scarce, society has to decide on the goods to be produced.

How to Produce: The next problem of an economist is to decide on how to produce goods and services with what combinations and what method of production. This method is primarily dependent upon the available resources within the economy. Further, goods and services can be produced with different combinations of factors of production. If land is available in abundance it may have extensive cultivation. But if land is scarce, intensive method of cultivation may be used. If labour is in abundance it may be labour intensive techniques while in the case of labour shortage, capital-intensive technique may be used.

For Whom to Produce: This is the allocation of goods among the members of the society. How should the consumer goods be distributed? How should the capital goods be distributed? The allocation of consumer goods among the household takes place on the basis of exchange whoever possess the means to buy the good may have it.

How Efficient are the Resources Being Utilized: Society has to see whether the resources it owns are being utilized fully or not. In case the resources of the economy are lying idle. It has to find out ways and means to utilize them fully. If idleness of resources (Manpower. Land and capital) is due to their misallocation, the society will have to adopt such monetary, fiscal or physical policies or measures so that it can be corrected. In an economy where the available resources are being fully utilized. It is characterized by technical efficiency or full employment. To maintain it at his level, the economy must always be increasing the output of some goods and services by giving up something to others.
Is the Economy Growing or is Stagnant: The most important problem is to find out whether the resources of the economy are growing, does it accelerates through a high rate of capital formation? which consist of replacing existing capital goods with new and more productive ones, by adopting more efficient production method, or through innovation.

Economic System
The term economic system refers to the mode of production and distribution of goods and services within which economic activities takes place. In other words, "Assar Ling back" defined it as "a set of mechanism and institution for decision making concerning production, distribution and consumption within a given geographical area" in a broader sense, the term economic system also refers to how different economic agents solve the central problems of economy what, how and for whom to produce. Basically, there are characteristic/features, which are very crucial in differentiating economic system. They are: -
1)  Organization of decision making arrangements
2)   Mechanism for the provision of information and coordinating market and plans.
3)   Property right, ownership and control.
4)  Mechanism for setting goals and inducing to act (incentives)

One of the major characteristics, which distinguish different economic system is thus, the organization or decision-making arrangement for example, such a decision may concern the allocation of resources in national economy, in comparing economics system. The question could be asked to what extent are allocation decision administered by central authority or taken by the micro-units (either households or firm) independently or state authority here refers to the allocation or input to different sectors or economy for production and distribution or output to final consumers. The level of decision-making also depends on the handling of information. And the relevant information is in the hands of the central authority or possessed by different sub-unit.

Economic systems could also be distinguished through the mechanism by which information about the decision process and coordinating passed to the sub-unit. These could be market or planning. The term "Planning" has a very broad meaning in a book called DAS CAPITAL as the system of managing economic process involving production, distribution, investment and consumption" in essence, it consists of determining economic target and method for their implementation, in particular the allocation of the means of production and of economic strategies achieve optimum growth of national income or the maximum satisfaction of social means. In a planned economy sub-units, individual and firms are co-coordinated largely by the specific institution or determined by the cultural or by disseminated information called a plan. But in free market economy the impact of the interaction of the invisible forces of demand and supply can provide information on price signals that can enhance sub-unit in the system to make resources utilization, decision and the market to coordinate the activities of different decision making unit. For example household earns income by providing land, labour and capital to the system and with this income profit could be generated.

Property ownership also serves as a distinguishing feature of economic system, ownership right falls under three broad types or categories. These are: -
  Disposition right; this is the ability to dispose any property owned by individuals, firms or government either by transfer, selling or otherwise. Utilization right; this is the ability to use the property as deemed fit.  Exploration right; It is the right to use the products or services generated by the property in question. In a nutshell, there are 3 forms of property ownership namely, private, public and collective. They relate closely to the way in which we classify different economic system for example if private ownership prevails, each of the 3 ownership rights will belong to individual whereas under public ownership these 3 property ownership rights will belong typically to the state.

Incentives mechanism should induce participants at lower level to fulfill the directives of participants at higher-level. Incentives can be material or moral. Material incentives on one hand consist of a system of reward that promote desirable behavior by giving recipient a greater claim over material goods than one who has performed less work. Moral incentives on the other hand revolve around rewarding desirable behavior by appealing to the recipient social stature within the community without giving him or her command over material goods.

Types of Economic System
Capitalism
It is an economic system in which individual in his capacity as a consumer, producer and resources owner is engaged in economic activities with substantial economic freedom. Individuals economic action conform to the existing legal and institutional framework of the society which is governed by the institution of private property, profit motive, freedom of enterprises and consumer sovereignty under such an economic system, all factors of production are privately owned and managed by individuals.
Features of Capitalism
The following features characterize the capitalist economy otherwise known as market economy or free enterprise: -
1)   Private property: it is freedom of individual as consumer or producer to own property or means of production as use them the way he likes but not in such a way to endanger society.
2)   Profit motive: The main motive behind capitalist economic system is to maximize profit
3)   Price mechanism: prices of all goods and services as well as indivisible hands determine factor inputs.
4)  Role of the state: in capitalism economic system government's major role includes the provision the institutional and legal framework to ease working of economy and the provision of public goods and the regulation of monopolies.
5)   Consumer's sovereignty: in capitalist economic system consumer is king. He has power to make choice. Thus consumers buy whatever they feel like and work wherever their feel like without any restriction.
6)   Freedom of enterprise: Under the system, private individuals are free to engage in any economic activity they wish, provided they have enough capital to do so. There is no restriction as far as enterprise is concerned; individual can be producer, farmer mechanic, plumber etc.
7)   Competition: In capitalist economic system there is freedom of exit and entry into business activities and thus enterprises are price taker and as such there is no monopoly situation under the system.
Advantages of Capitalism
1)   Increase in production: This leads to the rise of income, saving investment and progress where every farmer, trader and industrialist can hold property and use it in the way he likes. This brings about improvement in production and increased productivity.
2)   Quality product at low cost: The twin freedom of consumer and producer leads to the production of quality product and lowering cost and prices.
3)   Optimum use of resources: Under capitalism producers undertakes the production of only those goods appear to yield maximum profit in anticipation of demand.
4)   Flexible system. In capitalist economy operates automatically through the price mechanism.
5)  Efficiency: The presence of competition under capitalism leads to increase efficiency, encourage innovation, research and specialization thereby bringing progress and prosperity in the country.
Disadvantages of Capitalism
1)   It leads to monopoly in the Long run: Competition which is one of important feature of capitalism turn out monopoly situation in Long run because less powerful enterprises are forced out of industry and hence monopoly.
2)   Income inequality: institution of private property creates inequalities of income and wealth under capitalism.
3)   Inefficient production. Capitalism fails to produce goods in accordance with the society's requirement; thus, there is social wastage of economic resources.
4)   Poor utilization of resources: The price mechanism under capitalism fails to employ resources of a country fully, hence unemployment and thus freedom of occupation becomes meaningless under capitalism.
5)   Human welfare is neglected: This is done through entrepreneurial exploitation of workers and consumes, the system   creates problems of employment and economic instability.
Socialism
This is an economic system where the state takes the major economic decisions through detailed planning. Countries that adopt this system do not believe in the efficacy of market forces. Production and distribution of goods and factors of production are done by state under the directives of planning authority. The decision as what to produce, how to produce and for whom to produce are taken by the planning authority that is why socialist economy is also called a plan economy.
Features of Socialism
1)   Public ownership of means of production and distribution: This implies that all firms, financial institutions. Distributing agencies, means of transportation and communication etc. are not only owned but also controlled and regulated by the government department and State Corporation. The objective if socialist economy is societal welfare not profit as in case of capitalist arrangement.
2)  Central planning: There exists a central planning authority, which formulates a comprehensive economic plan for the national economy. The intended objectives and targets are spelt out and major economic decisions regarding what, how, for whom to produce are made by planning authority.
3)  Definite objective: Socialist economy operates within definite economic objectives and these may concern aggregate demand, full employment, and satisfaction of communal demand, distribution. Of national income, the amount of capital accumulation etc. in attempt to achieve these objectives necessitates formulation of plan that defines priorities and targets, which covers all aspects of the economy.
4)  Freedom of consumption: Under socialism consumer's sovereignty implies that government in line with the preference of consumer generally owns production and the available commodities are distributed to the consumers at fixed price through the state.
5)  Equality of income distribution: In socialist economy, there is great equality of income distribution because of absence of private ownership of means of production, private accumulation of capital and profit motive.
6) Planning and the pricing process: pricing process is under the watchful eye of the government who has power to control and regulate prices. Planning is the system of managing economic process involving production, investment and consumption. It is essence consists in determining economic targets and method for their implementation, planning and pricing complement one another in a socialist economy such that the two work towards the realization of known objectives.
Advantages of Socialism
1)   Greater economic efficiency: central planning authority makes an extensive survey of resources and utilizes them in most efficient manner thereby avoiding wasteful competition. Societal welfare is maximized by producing socially useful goods and services which satisfy the basic wants of people such as food; shelter and clothing these enhance economic efficiency.
2)   Greater welfare: There is less inequality of income because all citizens' work for welfare state (socialist economy) is paid their remuneration according to their ability, education and training. All rents, interest and profit received by state are expended for improving public welfare through provision of free education, housing, free public health services, social security to public etc.
3)  Absence of monopolistic practice: There is state monopoly rather than private monopoly and as such undue and unnecessary exploitation of monopolistic private individual is avoided and thus improvement in standard of living of masses.
4)   Absence of business fluctuation: Central planning authority controls and regulates production and consumption of goods and services in accordance with objectives and target of plan. This ensures economic stability and reduces the chances of overproduction and employment.
5)   Prevention of certain forms of economic waste: Free enterprise capitalism is noted for its wasteful use of resources examples are, unnecessary product differentiation, unwarranted fragmentation and duplication of equipments and services, excess employment in sales promotion, misleading advertisement, conspicuous consumption etc. such forms of waste are virtually absent or can be easily prevented under socialism.
Disadvantage of Socialism
1)   Loss of consumer's sovereignty: Consumers do not have freedom to buy commodities they want. They consume only commodities, which are provided by the central authority.
2)  No freedom of occupation: Every individual is provided a job by the state but he cannot leave or change it.
3)   Misallocation of resources: Central planning authority often commits mistake in allocation of resources because the entire work is carried out on trail and error basis.
4)  Bureaucratic: A socialist economy is said to be a bureaucratic economy because it operates like a machine and hence does not provide the necessary initiative to the people to work hard. People work for fear of high authority not for any personal gain or self interest.
5)   Emergence of state monopoly: Socialism leads to state monopoly of means of production which gives rise to ineffective and inefficient production and distribution of goods and services due to bureaucracy and misallocation of resources.


Mixed Economy
Mixed economy is combination between capitalist and socialist economy.  It is an economy   system   where   price   mechanism   and   economic   planning   authority   are   used simultaneously. Hence there are both private and public ownership of means of production and distribution. Household and firms and some other take some decisions by planning authority.

 Features of Mixed Economy
1)    Public sector: all decision regarding what, how and for whom to produce is taken by the state. Public utilities such as road construction, power supply, water supply are in the side of public sector. These public utilities are operating for societal welfare maximization not for profit motives.
2)   Private sector: There is private sector in which production and distribution of goods and services are carried out by private enterprise. Profit motive is the guiding principle in this sector.
3)   Joint sector: there is joint sector where both state and private jointly run enterprise. It is organized on the basis of a joint stock company where majority of shares are held by the state.
4)   Freedom and control: in mixed economy there is every freedom to own private property, earn profit, to consume, produce, distribute and to have any occupation of choice without limitations until and unless such possessions have an adverse effect on public welfare so that state intervenes in order to control and regulate the situation.
5)   Economic planning: There is a central planning authority in a mixed economy. In this system, economy operates on basis of some economic plan. All sectors of economy function in accordance with the objectives, priority and targets laid down in the plan.
Advantages of Mixed Economy
1)   Best allocation of resources: since mixed economy incorporate the goods features of both capitalism and socialism, the resources of the economy are utilized in best possible manner.
2)  General balance: mixed economy maintains a general balance between the public and private sectors. There is competition as well as co-operation between the two sectors which is conducive atmosphere for achieving a high rate of capital accumulation and economic growth.
3)   Welfare state: mixed economy contains all the features of the welfare state that provides social services such as health care, unemployment pay etc. to people who need them. Therefore, there is no exploitation either by the capitalist under free enterprise economy or by the state under centrally planned economy.
4)  Stability: it ensures stability by reducing high unemployment and income inequality associated with capitalist economy.
Disadvantages of Mixed Economy
1) Non-cooperation between the two sectors: experience has shown that in mixed economy private and public sector do not see eye to eye with one another. They are at loggerhead because of their disparity in motives and as such they are not cooperative with one another.
2)   Inefficient public sector: public sector of mixed economy is a bit burden on economy because it works inefficiently. The bottlenecks, which militate against efficiency of public sector, are bureaucratic control, over staffing of personnel, red-tepism, corruption, and nepotism among others. These bring about decline in production and huge loss.
3)  Economic fluctuation: The experience of the working of mixed economic system in developed countries also reveals that they have not been able to remove economic fluctuation.
Distinctions between Micro & Macro Economics
The word micro has been derived from the Greek word micros, which means small. Microeconomics is the study of economic actions of individuals and small groups of individuals. It includes particular households, particular firms, particular industries, particular commodities, individual prices, wages and incomes. Thus microeconomics studies how resources are allocated to production of particular goods and services and how efficiently they are distributed. But microeconomics in itself, does not study the problem of allocation of resources to the economy as a whole.

The word macro is also derived from Greek word MAKROS which means large. Macroeconomics is the study of aggregates or averages covering the entire economy, such as total employment, national income, national output, total investment, total consumption, total saving, aggregate supply and demand, general price level, wage level and cost structure. In other words, it is aggregative economics, which examines the interrelations among the various aggregates, their determination and causes of fluctuations in them.  

Microeconomics analysis deals with economic actions of single individuals as the name implies small. How a single firm maximizes profits, How a single producer minimizes cost etc. these are the main areas of studies in microeconomics. Thus, can be referred to as the study of an economy in small. Macroeconomics analysis on the other hand studies the economy as
the whole. It deals with economic affairs in the large. It concerns the overall dimensions of economic life the two can be linked to study of a forest (i.e. macro economic analysis) and a tree (micro economic analysis) within a forest.  Thus, macro economic analysis  studies  the character of the forest independently of the trees, which composes it.

The objective of microeconomics is to suggest or identity the efficient means of resources allocation at micro level. It suggests most efficient ways of spending consumer's income. Most efficient combination of factor inputs to a producer and recommended most effective pricing policy to a firm or industry. In other word, objective of microeconomics on demand side is to maximize utility whereas on the supply side is maximizing profit at minimum cost.
The objectives of macroeconomics on the other hand are to achieve an efficient allocation
 of resources at the level of economy as a hole. It concerns with how the broad aggregate can be manipulated to achieve optimum welfare in the economic. In other word, the main objectives of macroeconomics are full employment.  Price stability, economic growth and favorable balance of payments,

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

BANKING SECTOR CONSOLIDATION AND THE FUTURE OF EMERGING BANKS IN NIGERIA


BANKING SECTOR CONSOLIDATION AND THE FUTURE
OF EMERGING BANKS IN NIGERIA





By
Mustapha Muktar, Ph.D
Department Of Economics, Bayero University Kano-Nigeria







A Lecture Delivered @ Bankers’ Day Symposium
Centre for Democratic Research and Training,
Mambayya House, Kano
August 19, 2006







Introduction
Banking sector consolidation has been an ongoing phenomenon that has been intensified due to the forces of globalization which are guiding the regulation of the world’s financial markets and economies. Consolidation simply means the reduction in the number of banks and other deposit taking institutions with a simultaneous increase in size and concentration of consolidated entities in the sector.

Banks consolidation is motivated by technological innovations, deregulation of financial services, enhancing intermediation, increased emphasis on share holder value as well as privatization and international competition (Berger and etal1999, IMF 2001). Capitalization is an important term that is achieved through consolidation this is so due to the fact that a bank with a strong capital base has the ability to absolve losses from non performing liabilities (NPL)

Overview of the Banking sector in Nigeria                         
Modern form of banking in Nigeria started in 1892 when the African banking Corporation (ABC) commenced formal banking business. ABC was later taken by the Bank of British West Africa which metamorphosed to the present day First Bank of Nigeria Plc. Between 1927 – 1951 there were 25 indigenous Banks out of which 23 failed leaving only 2. The failure was due to the absence of banking regulation, inadequate capital, shortage of qualified personnel and other factors. The banking ordinance of 12952 was then enacted to regulate the banking environment. Subsequent efforts at strengthening the regulatory framework resulted in the enactment of the CBN act 1958, the NDIC act 1988, the CBN act 1991, and the banks and other financial institutions act of 1991. Nigerian banks were however characterized by large number of small banks with few branches, poor rating of a number of banks (as at December 2004, out of 89 banks no bank was rated very sound, only 10 were rated as sound, 51 were rated satisfactory, 16 were rated marginal and 10 unsound). The sector was also characterized by weak corporate governance, negative capital adequacy ratio, over dependence on public sector   deposits and eroded share holders funds caused by operating losses.

The Current Banking Sector Reform
Since Nigerian Banking sector is characterized by problems, then there is the need to restructure the system. Restructuring becomes necessary so as to create a strong and reliable banking sector which will play active developmental roles in the Nigerian economy and the world financial system at large.

On July 6, 2004 the CBN governor enunciated the thrust of the banking system reform program in his 13 point reform agenda. Two major elements of the reform agenda are the requirement of the Nigerian banks to increase their share holders’ funds to a minimum of N25 billion by the end of December 2005, and consolidation through mergers and acquisition.

The objectives of the reform are as follows;
1. Minimum capitalization of N25 billion before end of December 2005.
2. Phased withdrawal of public sector funds from banks
3. Consolidation through mergers and acquisition
4.  Adoption of risk focused and rule based regulatory framework
5. Adoption of zero tolerance in the regulatory framework.
6. The automation process for rendition of returns by banks through the electronic and financial analysis surveillance system (e - FASS)
7. Establishment of hotline confidential internet address (governor @ cenbank.org) for Nigerians wishing to share any confidential information with the CBN governor on banking operations.
8. Strict enforcement of the contingency planning framework for systematic banking distress
9. Establishment of an assets management company as an important element of distress resolution.
10. Promotion of the enforcement of dormant laws especially those relating to the issuance of dud cheques and the law relating to the vicarious liability of the board of banks in cases of failing by the banks
11. Revision and updating of the relevant laws and drafting of new ones on banking operation
12. Closer collaboration with the economic and financial crimes commission (EFCC) in the establishment of the financial intelligence unit and enforcement of anti money laundering and other economic measures.
13. Rehabilitation and effective management of the mint to meet the security printing needs of Nigeria.

The future of Emerging Banks
Banks in Nigeria have face a lot of challenges which includes inadequate experience and technical knowledge on large scale consolidation, huge cost associated with consolidation, problems of non performing loans, operational challenges arising from information communication technologies (ICT) system and supervision / regulation of mega banks.

One of the main effects of consolidation in Nigeria is the reduction in the number of banks in the system. But the emerging ones are better capitalized and bigger, this is because the minimum N25 BILLION induces growth.

The mega banks that have also emerged may have stronger capacity to take big risks and thus be better able to finance key growth sectors of the economy.

The weak banks are also out of the industry in an orderly manner, while some have merged together, others have been acquired by bigger banks and those that have no suitors have been forced into a “marriage of convenience”

Good corporate governance is also a feature of the emerging banks; since the share holding base of the banks’ is increased thus, family owned banks are eliminated.

Merger and acquisition that resulted due to consolidation will improve the the profitability of the emerging banks as well as operational efficiency.

One of the negative effects of the reform is the retrenchment of workers in the banking industry; this is more pronounced in the weak banks that are acquired by strong ones

Conclusion
Banks consolidation brought about a lot of benefits to the stake holders in the industry. The current banking sector reform if well implemented will cleanse the industry so that a stricter and more professional supervision and regulation could be achieved. The Central Bank of Nigeria should however need the cooperation and support of the stake holders for a successful implementation of the reform.

Thank you for listening.

THE CURRENT GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISES: Will Capitalism Resist the Test of Time?

THE CURRENT GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISES: Will Capitalism Resist the Test of Time?


Dr. Mustapha Muktar (mmuktar75@yahoo.com
Department of Economics
 Bayero University, Kano-Nigeria

1. Introduction
Crises have been a feature of the financial landscape for hundreds of years. They often appear with little warnings as the subprime mortgage crises of 2007-2008 and the Asian crises of 1997-1998 illustrate. It is not always clear what causes crises in the financial sector whether they can be avoided and how their impact can be reduced (Allen & Douglas, 2007).  Financial crises are applied broadly to variety of situations in which some financial institutions or assets suddenly lose a large part of their value. In the 19th and 20th centaury many financial crises were associated with banking panics, and many recessions coincided with these panics. Other situations that are often called financial crises include stock market crushes and the bursting of other financial bubbles, currency crises and sovereign defaults. A financial asset (stock for example) is said to exhibit a bubble when its price exceeds the value of its future income (interest or dividend) that would be received by owning it to maturity.

The financial crises of 2007-2008 referred to as “credit crunch” or “credit crises” began in August 2007, when a loss of confidence by investors in the value of securitized mortgages in the United States resulted in liquidity crises which prompted a substantial injection of capital into financial markets by the United States Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. An indicator of perceived credit risk in the general economy was perceived, it spiked up in August 2007, remained volatile for a year, and then spiked even higher in September 2008.

Although America’s housing collapses often cited as having caused the crises, the financial system was vulnerable because of intricate financial contracts known as Credit Default Swap (CDS), which insure debt holders against default. They are fashioned privately, traded over the counter beyond the sight of regulators. The US government seizure of mortgage companies prompted an auction of their debt so that traders who bought and sold default protection (CDS) could settle contracts with cash rather than having physically deliver a bond to their counterparty’s prime.   
The initial liquidity crisis can in hindsight be seen to have resulted from the incipient subprime mortgage crisis.  Excessive lending under loosened underwriting standards, which was a hallmark of the United States housing bubble, resulted in a very large number of subprime mortgages. These high-risk loans had been perceived to be mitigated by securitization. Rather than mitigating the risk, however, this strategy appears to have had the effect of broadcasting and amplifying it in a domino effect. The damage from these failing securitization schemes eventually cut across a large swath of the housing market and the housing business and led to the subprime mortgage crisis. The accelerating rate of foreclosures caused an ever greater number of homes to be dumped onto the market. This glut of homes decreased the value of other surrounding homes which themselves became subject to foreclosure or abandonment. The resulting spiral underlay a developing financial crisis.
Initially the companies affected were those directly involved in home construction and mortgage lending such as Northern Rock and Countrywide Financial. Financial institutions which had engaged in the securitization of mortgages such as Bear Stearns then fell prey. Later on, Bear Stearns was acquired by JP Morgan Chase through the deliberate assistance from the US government. Its stock price fell from the record high $154 to $3 which was the acquisition price by JP Morgan Chase, subsequently the acquisition price was agreed on $10 between the US government as well as JP Morgan. On July 11, 2008, the largest mortgage lender in the US, Indy Mac Bank, collapsed, and it's assets were seized by federal regulators after the mortgage lender succumbed to the pressures of tighter credit, tumbling home prices and rising foreclosures. That day the financial markets plunged as investors tried to gauge whether the government would attempt to save mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which it did by placing the two companies into federal conservatorship on September 7, 2008 after the crisis further accelerated (The Economist, 2008)

It then began to affect the general availability of credit to non-housing related businesses and to larger financial institutions not directly connected with mortgage lending. At the heart of many of these institution's portfolios were investments whose assets had been derived from bundled home mortgages. Exposure to these mortgage-backed securities, or to the credit derivatives used to insure them against failure, threatened an increasing number of firms such as Lehman Brothers, AIG, Merrill Lynch, and HBOS.  Other firms that came under pressure included Washington Mutual, the largest savings and loan association in the United States, and the remaining large investment firms, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.

Beginning with bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers on Sunday, September 14, 2008, the financial crisis entered an acute phase marked by failures of prominent American and European banks and efforts by the American and European governments to rescue distressed financial institutions, in the United States by passage of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 and in European countries by infusion of capital into major banks. Afterwards, Iceland almost claimed to go bankrupt. Many financial institutions in Europe also faced the liquidity problem that they needed to raise their capital adequacy ratio. As the crisis developed, stock markets fell worldwide, and global financial regulators attempted to coordinate efforts to contain the crisis. The US government threw the $700 billions plan which was attempted to purchase the un-performing collaterals and assets. Unfortunately, the market sentiment continuously deteriorated and the global financial system almost collapsed. While the market turned extremely pessimistic, the British government launched a 500 billion pounds bailout plan aimed to injecting capital into the financial system. The British government nationalized most of the financial intuitions in trouble. Many European governments followed as well as the US government (Kirkup, 2008)

Some of the consequences of the current crises include;
Credit Got Tighter
With interest rates higher, money just got more expensive to borrow. There are also tighter restrictions for getting loans: you need a higher down payment to qualify for a loan plus you need to have very good credit to get a good mortgage deal these days. A friend of mine who is a real estate investor is not thrilled by these developments at all. He tells me stories of people with perfect credit who are now at the brink of foreclosure due to tighter rules
or unlucky circumstance. These people have “upside-down” homes that are now cheaper than their purchase price and are therefore unable to find refinancing for their adjustable rate mortgages due to stricter refinancing terms. Since they are unable to refinance, they become stuck with existing mortgage payments that simply grow larger with interest rate hikes. When payments become prohibitive, they are forced to default (Truman, 2008)

Buying a House get Tougher

If you’re a house bubble sitter happy to wait for lower priced homes, you may be less excited about today’s cheaper housing market. That’s because borrowing to buy a house is now under greater scrutiny. With credit drying up, all those fancy, exotic loans that allowed just about anyone to attain a new house disappeared with a whiff. “Stated-income” loans allowed borrowers to declare but not submit documentation of their income in order to qualify for these loans. These loans used to make it easier to borrow but they are now extinct. There are stricter requirements for purchasing a house today: higher interest rates on jumbo and non-conforming loans (greater than $417,000), better credit scores required, down payments of 10% or more to snag the best loan rates. (Blogger, 2007)

The stock market got scarier
We all know how much this market sucks. I hope you’re keeping your powder dry to buy in on the dips. I’d expect this downturn to work itself out over a period of several months. If this is a summer cyclical swoon, then come November, there could be a recovery.. If you’re well diversified and have a long term view, you need not be too concerned.

Other socioeconomic consequences of the crises include difficulty in borrowing money which makes families to reduce their expenditures. Banks were being forced to write off billions loaned to those who could not afford to make repayments, for example Barclays bad debt hit 1.5 Billion ponds. Banks which specialize in providing home loans to those with poor credit history and the self employed have made dramatic changes recently. While some have dropped mortgages altogether others have raised their rate by as much as 2.5%.

The Political Economy of the Current Financial Crises     
To fully grasp the politics behind the subprime mortgage crises it will be essential to analyze the US Federal Housing Administration Mortgage Program. In 2002, the President issued America’s Homeownership Challenge to increase first-time minority homeowners by 5.5 million through 2010. The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) mortgage program is an important tool for reaching that goal. In 2006, 31 percent of those using FHA mortgages were minorities purchasing their first home. The 2008 Budget continues administration efforts to modernize FHA by improving its ability to reach traditionally underserved homebuyers (those who do not normally qualify for loans), such as low- and moderate-income families, individuals with blemished credit, and families who have little savings for a down payment.  (From Bush Administration’s White House Press Release entitled, “Focusing on the Nation’s Priorities – Meeting America’s Housing Needs”).

The Bush administration through, also required Fannie and Freddie (two mortgage giants) to give a higher percentage of their loans to minorities that otherwise would not qualify for the loans.  (Blogger, 2007).  First of all, government sponsored corporations that help create the mortgage system (Fannie May and Freddie Mac), as well as the federal home loan banks, increased their commitment to minority markets by more than $440 billion.

Fannie Mae’s ten-point plan to help advance the Bush Administration’s homeownership proposals was included in the Blueprint for the American Dream document.
The Blueprint for the American Dream unveiled today is the response to the `homeownership challenge’ President Bush issued to increase minority homeownership.
Fannie Mae responded to Bush plan by committing $700 billion in home financing to 4.6 million minority households through 2009. This increases by 66 percent the specific pledge Fannie Mae made in 2000 to minority families through its American Dream Commitment plan to provide $420 billion for three million minority families.(Gelpern, 2008)
Bush and the Republican Congress forced Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to make zero-down loans and adjustable rate 3, 5, and 7 year arms available to the riskiest buyers. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were forced to effectively finance 103 percent of the mortgage (including closing costs).

It was between 2001-2005 that most of these loans that have gone bad were made. You can find all of the official documents at the White House, as well as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac press release websites.

The question here is why did Bush and the Republican Congress push minority and low income loans? They pushed it for two main reasons. First, the economy was facing a recession due to huge debt contracted to finance wars in Iraq Afghanistan and other countries, and they looked to stimulate economy by stimulating the housing market. In fact, the Administration pointed to the huge increase in housing numbers under his “leadership” to show that he stimulated the economy to come out of a recession. Second, there was a huge demand in the securities market for mortgage-backed securities and there were not enough of them to keep up with demand.  Mortgage-backed securities were in such demand because it allowed banks and lenders to turn an illiquid asset - mortgages– into a liquid asset by bundling the mortgages and selling them as securities. Also, many thought that they were great securities to buy because they were further secured by collateral (the homes)and if the debt went bad, the collateral could be sold. They also thought that the mortgage-backed securities bundled from loans made through Fannie and Freddie were government guaranteed because they are quasi-government agencies.

In any event, there was a huge demand for these in the market and not enough supply. To increase supply for mortgage-backed securities, more loans had to be made. The only way to get more loans made was to come up with more creative loan products to get people into homes that otherwise would not qualify. So the Bush Administration and Republican Congress aggressively came up with ways to allow individuals who normally could not get loans to get loans.

The problem was the housing “bubble” started to burst and home values started to fall. At the same time, many of the 3 and 5 year arm loans were set to adjust to higher interest rates. Homeowners went to re-finance, but were unable to re-finance their mortgages because their homes were now less than what they owed on their mortgages. Their interest rates shot up incredibly high rates, like 15.9%. Homeowners saw their mortgage payments triple and could no longer afford their homes.






The Global Financial Crises and Nigerian Economy

Government economists have asserted that Nigeria is not and will not be in a financial meltdown despite the hiccups in the developed countries their justification is that the recapitalization of Banks is sound and that the respective capital markets of the developed world and that of Nigeria were not connected, however the spill over effects of the crises have started to manifests itself in Nigeria in the following ways;

v  The crises has precipitated a reduction in the demand for exports especially oil, its impact have already seen on the oil prices which have fall by more than 50% in the last six months and this has negatively affected the revenue earned as oil is the main source of revenue.

v  There is a cut in the foreign capital inflow into Nigeria and other African countries in General as observed the global growth will be a lot slower the sort of flows are going to dry up” and because of the small size in our market even limited withdraws could have significant impact and as the crises deepens it means there will be major capital withdraws. This will affect the rate of economic growth negatively.

v  The Nigerian capital market though not linked with foreign capital market have been affected negatively as stock market  prices have fallen drastically, this is because investors are fearful  and lose confidence. The lost in confidence is mainly due to contagion effects and expectation of same to happen in Nigeria. This lost in confidence can however last for some time.

v  It has been observed that remittances by Nigerians who works and stay abroad will be reduced as they are affected by the crises and that will lead to a reduction of welfare of their dependents in Nigeria.  

v  The post consolidation period has exposed a lot of Nigerian banks to global practices, as they have entered business relationships with some foreign banks that are badly affected by the crises, some of them have booked considerable credits from such embattled financial institutions and with the credit crunch they cannot be able to get the required credit as such are negatively affected.   

The current global financial crises is a manifestation of the faulty macroeconomic policies in US coupled with imprudent lending, and weak financial regulations  which accelerated asset price bubbles in housing sector. It later spreads to Europe and some Asian countries that has connection with the US capital market. Its effects on the Nigerian economy were however indirect and unavoidable.  The Marxian theoretical postulations of the capitalist crises and the collapse of capitalism has been proved, we await the death of capitalism so that after its burial a proletariat government will be formed with no subjugation and exploitation.    

References
Allen F & Douglas G (2007) Understanding Financial Crises.Knowledge@Wharton
                             Publishers.US
Blogger V. S (2007) “Causes and Consequencies of Subprime Mortgage Financial Crises”.
                                     http//www. youtube.com/watch?
                                   
Gelpern A (2008) “Responding to Crises.http//www.northjersey.com/opinion/29783864.html

Kirkup J (2008) “the Financial Crises: The Bailout-Deal Explained” http//www.telegraph.co.uk/

Mushi T.(2008) “How African Countries Could Counter Global Financial Crises” Daily Independent 
                                     (lagos, Nigeria)
Soludo C. C( 2008) “Nigeria:Country Safe From Global Financial Crises” Daily Independenct
                                     (lagos, Nigeria)
The Economist (2008) “Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the market Chaos”. http//www.
                                      economist.com. July 19th -25th
The Economist (2008) “the Future of Banking”. http//www. economist.com. May 17th -23rd 

Truman E.M (2008) “Each Crises is Different All Crises are the Same” http//www.petersoninstitue.
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